Gillingham vs Port Vale: prediction and statistics

England · League Two · 20 October 2026 · kick-off 19:00 UTC

Corners

51%

Corners over 9.5

Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Gillingham 5.1, Port Vale 4.7. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 51% (typical match — 52%).

This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 61%, typical match 60%.

Yellow cards

64%

Yellow cards under 4.5

Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: Gillingham 2.2, Port Vale 1.8; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 36% (typical match — 32%).

This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 56%, typical match 51%.

Result

Our model: Gillingham win 36%, draw 27%, Port Vale win 38%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 52%.

Form

Gillingham: last five matches — W-W-L-D-W.

4 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
3 matches unbeaten · all competitions

Port Vale: last five matches — L-L-L-L-D.

6 matches without a win · away
6 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
3 matches unbeaten · all competitions

Table: Gillingham — 4, Port Vale — 22 (of 24).

Team statistics for three seasons

Gillingham at home and Port Vale away, 2024/25–2026/27.

	Gillingham	Port Vale
Matches	51	27
Win rate	39%	37%
Goals scored per match	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded per match	1.2	1.3
Over 2.5 goals	41%	41%
Both teams score	47%	48%
Total corners per match	8.5	9.7
Over 9.5 corners	35%	48%
Total yellow cards per match	4.5	4.0
Over 4.5 yellow cards	47%	33%

Head to head

14 meetings in our database: Gillingham won 4, 4 draws, Port Vale won 6. Per match: 2.6 goals, 5.5 corners, 3.0 yellow cards.

03.05.2025: Port Vale 0:1 Gillingham
09.11.2024: Gillingham 1:0 Port Vale
11.02.2017: Gillingham 1:1 Port Vale

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers

How many corners in Gillingham vs Port Vale?

Our model expects 9.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 51%.

How many yellow cards in Gillingham vs Port Vale?

Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 36%.

Who is more likely to win Gillingham vs Port Vale?

Our model: Gillingham 36%, draw 27%, Port Vale 38%.