Xpect
GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United: prediction and statistics
Kenya · FKF Premier League · 8 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: GOR Mahia · Nairobi United
Key facts
- Nairobi United has won 2 of the last 3 meetings with GOR Mahia.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 43% of GOR Mahia home games and 21% of Nairobi United away games.
Result
Final score 1:1.
Result
Our model: GOR Mahia win 49%, draw 27%, Nairobi United win 24%. Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 45%.
Form
GOR Mahia: last five matches — L-L-W-W-L.
Nairobi United: last five matches — W-L-W-D-L.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: GOR Mahia — 1, Nairobi United — 9 (of 12).
Team statistics for three seasons
GOR Mahia at home and Nairobi United away, 2024–2026.
| GOR Mahia | Nairobi United | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 37 | 19 |
| Win rate | 51% | 47% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 21% |
| Both teams score | 38% | 37% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 0% |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: GOR Mahia won 0, 1 draws, Nairobi United won 2. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 31.05.2026: GOR Mahia 0:1 Nairobi United
- 21.12.2025: Nairobi United 1:1 GOR Mahia
- 29.06.2025: GOR Mahia 1:2 Nairobi United
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United?
Our model: GOR Mahia 49%, draw 27%, Nairobi United 24%.