Xpect
Havelse vs Fortuna Köln: prediction and statistics
Germany · 3. Liga · 25 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Havelse 5.2, Fortuna Köln 4.9. In a typical match of this competition — 10.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 55% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 58%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: Havelse 2.1, Fortuna Köln 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 46% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 54%, typical match 52%.
Result
Market line without margin: Havelse win 32%, draw 26%, Fortuna Köln win 42%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 58%.
Form
Havelse: last five matches — W-W-L-W-D.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Fortuna Köln: last five matches — L-L-L-W-D.
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Havelse — 20, Fortuna Köln — 16 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Havelse at home and Fortuna Köln away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Havelse | Fortuna Köln | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 22 | 3 |
| Win rate | 36% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 67% |
| Both teams score | 73% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | 10.2 | 8.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 58% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.6 | 3.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 59% | 0% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Havelse vs Fortuna Köln?
Our model expects 10.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 55%.
How many yellow cards in Havelse vs Fortuna Köln?
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 46%.
Who is more likely to win Havelse vs Fortuna Köln?
Market line without margin: Havelse 32%, draw 26%, Fortuna Köln 42%.