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Heracles vs Jong PSV U21: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eerste Divisie · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Heracles · Jong PSV U21
Before kick-off
Eerste Divisie, 20 November 2026: Heracles are at home to Jong PSV U21. Heracles sit 1st in the 20-team table while Jong PSV U21 are 13th, so 12 places separate the two sides.
Few sides are in better shape than Heracles right now — 5 wins from the last 5 games. Jong PSV U21 have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 15 for Heracles against 5 for Jong PSV U21.
Heracles are hard to beat on their own ground — 7 wins in 7 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 3.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game. The away record of Jong PSV U21: 13 wins, 8 draws and 24 defeats in 45 matches, with 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded on average. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 4.0 per game in home matches of Heracles and 3.5 in away matches of Jong PSV U21.
The sides have rarely met: the Xpect database holds 2 meetings between them. The most recent meeting, on 28 April 2023, finished Heracles 3:0 Jong PSV U21.
Form
Heracles: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 7 wins in a row · at home
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Jong PSV U21: last five matches — L-L-D-W-D.
- 8 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
Table: Heracles — 1, Jong PSV U21 — 13 (of 20).
Home and away record
Heracles at home and Jong PSV U21 away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Heracles | Jong PSV U21 | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 45 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 7-0-0 | 13-8-24 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 2.0 |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: Heracles won 2, 0 draws, Jong PSV U21 won 0. Per match: 3.0 goals.
- 28.04.2023: Heracles 3:0 Jong PSV U21
- 22.08.2022: Jong PSV U21 0:3 Heracles
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 71% of Heracles’s home matches and 64% of Jong PSV U21’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Heracles: 8.0 against 2.7 for Jong PSV U21.
- Heracles is the more likely winner in our model: 78%, draw 14%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.7 corners in the match: Heracles 8.0, Jong PSV U21 2.7. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 63% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 10.5 — 50%, typical match 44%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.2 yellow cards: Heracles 1.5, Jong PSV U21 1.7; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 22% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 60%, typical match 57%.
Result
Our model: Heracles win 78%, draw 14%, Jong PSV U21 win 7%. Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 44%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Heracles | Jong PSV U21 | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 100% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 64% |
| Both teams score | 43% | 64% |
| Total corners per match | 11.7 | 11.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 57% | 71% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 14% | 24% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.