Xpect
Iceland vs Estonia: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.2 corners in the match: Iceland 5.2, Estonia 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 44% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 57%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Iceland 1.6, Estonia 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 34% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 66%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Iceland win 73%, draw 18%, Estonia win 9%. Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 42%.
Form
Iceland: last five matches — L-L-W-L-D.
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 6 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
Estonia: last five matches — L-L-W-D-L.
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Iceland at home and Estonia away, 2024–2026.
| Iceland | Estonia | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 15 |
| Win rate | 29% | 13% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 67% |
| Both teams score | 71% | 60% |
| Total corners per match | 8.3 | 11.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 43% | 64% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.1 | 3.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 71% | 25% |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Iceland won 0, 1 draws, Estonia won 0. Per match: 2.0 goals, 3.0 yellow cards.
- 08.01.2023: Iceland 1:1 Estonia
Referee
Milos Milanovic: 14 matches in our database, 5.1 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.7); over 4.5 cards in 43% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Iceland vs Estonia?
Our model expects 9.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 44%.
How many yellow cards in Iceland vs Estonia?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 34%.
Who is more likely to win Iceland vs Estonia?
Market line without margin: Iceland 73%, draw 18%, Estonia 9%.