Xpect
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.1 corners in the match: Independiente Medellin 5.2, Once Caldas 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 42% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 58%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.4 yellow cards: Independiente Medellin 2.9, Once Caldas 2.5; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 63% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 79%, typical match 82%.
Form
Independiente Medellin: last five matches — L-W-W-D-L.
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Once Caldas: last five matches — D-W-L-L-D.
- 3 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
Table: Independiente Medellin — 10, Once Caldas — 7 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Independiente Medellin at home and Once Caldas away, 2024–2026.
| Independiente Medellin | Once Caldas | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 63 | 64 |
| Win rate | 49% | 23% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 33% |
| Both teams score | 51% | 52% |
| Total corners per match | 9.0 | 9.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 39% | 44% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.4 | 6.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 60% | 69% |
Head to head
24 meetings in our database: Independiente Medellin won 10, 10 draws, Once Caldas won 4. Per match: 2.8 goals, 10.6 corners, 5.8 yellow cards.
- 03.04.2026: Once Caldas 1:1 Independiente Medellin
- 13.10.2025: Once Caldas 1:5 Independiente Medellin
- 20.04.2025: Independiente Medellin 2:0 Once Caldas
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?
Our model expects 9.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 42%.
How many yellow cards in Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?
Our model expects 5.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 63%.