Xpect
Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso: prediction and statistics
Peru · Primera División · 15 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Juan Pablo II College · Deportivo Garcilaso
Before kick-off
Juan Pablo II College host Deportivo Garcilaso in Primera División on 15 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Deportivo Garcilaso are 4th of 18, Juan Pablo II College 12th — a gap of 8 places.
Juan Pablo II College arrive in excellent form: 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Deportivo Garcilaso: 2 wins and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. Counted in points, Juan Pablo II College took 13 from that stretch and Deportivo Garcilaso only 6.
The home record of Juan Pablo II College (2024–2026) is balanced: 14 wins, 12 draws and 8 defeats in 34 matches, 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Away from home Deportivo Garcilaso have 13 wins, 14 draws and 23 defeats in 50 matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.3 per game.
History favours Deportivo Garcilaso — 3 wins from 3 meetings with Juan Pablo II College. Last time out (30 May 2026) it ended Deportivo Garcilaso 4:1 Juan Pablo II College. On average these meetings produce 3.3 goals.
Form
Juan Pablo II College: last five matches — W-D-W-W-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 wins in a row · at home
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Deportivo Garcilaso: last five matches — W-L-L-L-W.
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Juan Pablo II College — 12, Deportivo Garcilaso — 4 (of 18).
Home and away record
Juan Pablo II College at home and Deportivo Garcilaso away, 2024–2026.
| Juan Pablo II College | Deportivo Garcilaso | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 34 | 50 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 14-12-8 | 13-14-23 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Juan Pablo II College won 0, 0 draws, Deportivo Garcilaso won 3. Per match: 3.3 goals.
- 30.05.2026: Deportivo Garcilaso 4:1 Juan Pablo II College
- 13.10.2025: Juan Pablo II College 0:1 Deportivo Garcilaso
- 25.05.2025: Deportivo Garcilaso 4:0 Juan Pablo II College
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 41% of Juan Pablo II College home games and 42% of Deportivo Garcilaso away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Juan Pablo II College 38%, draw 26%, Deportivo Garcilaso 37%.
- Juan Pablo II College should win the corner count: 5.4 expected against 4.0 for Deportivo Garcilaso.
- Deportivo Garcilaso has won 3 of the last 3 meetings with Juan Pablo II College.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Juan Pablo II College 5.4, Deportivo Garcilaso 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 54%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: Juan Pablo II College 2.0, Deportivo Garcilaso 2.5; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 46% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 54%, typical match 43%.
Result
Our model: Juan Pablo II College win 38%, draw 26%, Deportivo Garcilaso win 37%. Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 55%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Juan Pablo II College | Deportivo Garcilaso | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 41% | 26% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 42% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 42% |
| Total corners per match | 8.5 | 9.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 52% | 48% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 4.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 38% | 56% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 6.3 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.7 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.