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Juventus vs Lazio: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie A · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Juventus 5.6, Lazio 3.8. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 54%, typical match 46%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Juventus 1.9, Lazio 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 37% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 63%, typical match 53%.
Result
Our model: Juventus win 43%, draw 25%, Lazio win 31%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 55%.
Form
Juventus: last five matches — W-D-W-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Lazio: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 7 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 5 wins in a row · away
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Juventus — 7, Lazio — 3 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Juventus at home and Lazio away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Juventus | Lazio | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 41 |
| Win rate | 56% | 49% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 37% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 32% |
| Total corners per match | 9.6 | 9.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 46% | 46% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.5 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 29% | 59% |
Head to head
70 meetings in our database: Juventus won 39, 15 draws, Lazio won 16. Per match: 2.6 goals, 9.3 corners, 4.2 yellow cards.
- 08.02.2026: Juventus 2:2 Lazio
- 26.10.2025: Lazio 1:0 Juventus
- 10.05.2025: Lazio 1:1 Juventus
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Juventus vs Lazio?
Our model expects 9.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 46%.
How many yellow cards in Juventus vs Lazio?
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 37%.
Who is more likely to win Juventus vs Lazio?
Our model: Juventus 43%, draw 25%, Lazio 31%.