Xpect
KäPa vs Haka: prediction and statistics
Finland · Ykkösliiga · 25 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: KäPa 1.9, Haka 1.9; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 33% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 67%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: KäPa win 18%, draw 21%, Haka win 61%. Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 58%.
Form
KäPa: last five matches — D-L-L-L-L.
- 5 matches without a win · at home
- 4 losses in a row · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Haka: last five matches — D-W-W-L-D.
- 9 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: KäPa — 8, Haka — 3 (of 10).
Team statistics for three seasons
KäPa at home and Haka away, 2024–2026.
| KäPa | Haka | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 39 | 11 |
| Win rate | 26% | 45% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 55% |
| Both teams score | 69% | 55% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 31% | 27% |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: KäPa won 0, 1 draws, Haka won 2. Per match: 4.0 goals, 4.5 yellow cards.
- 25.07.2026: Haka 3:1 KäPa
- 25.04.2026: Haka 2:2 KäPa
- 17.04.2013: Haka 4:0 KäPa
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in KäPa vs Haka?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 33%.
Who is more likely to win KäPa vs Haka?
Market line without margin: KäPa 18%, draw 21%, Haka 61%.