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Karviná vs Baník Ostrava II: prediction and statistics
Czechia · Chance Národní liga · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Karviná · Baník Ostrava II
Before kick-off
Karviná host Baník Ostrava II in Chance Národní liga on 20 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Karviná are 1st of 16, Baník Ostrava II 12th — a gap of 11 places.
Karviná arrive in excellent form: 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches. Recent results of Baník Ostrava II are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 11 and 10.
Home advantage matters here: Karviná have 5 wins and 1 draw in 6 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.7 per game. Away from home Baník Ostrava II have 13 wins, 9 draws and 14 defeats in 36 matches, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 per game. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.0 per game in home matches of Karviná and 3.0 in away matches of Baník Ostrava II.
There are no previous meetings between the two sides in the Xpect database.
Form
Karviná: last five matches — W-W-D-W-D.
- 10 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Baník Ostrava II: last five matches — W-W-W-L-D.
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Karviná — 1, Baník Ostrava II — 12 (of 16).
Home and away record
Karviná at home and Baník Ostrava II away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Karviná | Baník Ostrava II | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 36 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 5-1-0 | 13-9-14 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.6 |
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 67% of Karviná home games and 58% of Baník Ostrava II away games.
- Our model makes Karviná the favourite at 72%; a draw is 17%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Karviná 1.9, Baník Ostrava II 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 38% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 62%, typical match 53%.
Result
Our model: Karviná win 72%, draw 17%, Baník Ostrava II win 11%. Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 50%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Karviná | Baník Ostrava II | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 83% | 36% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 58% |
| Both teams score | 33% | 58% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.3 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 33% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.