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Kilmarnock vs Motherwell: prediction and statistics
Scotland · Premiership · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Kilmarnock 5.3, Motherwell 4.7. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 60%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 59%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Kilmarnock 2.2, Motherwell 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 62%, typical match 50%.
Result
Market line without margin: Kilmarnock win 30%, draw 26%, Motherwell win 44%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 58%.
Form
Kilmarnock: last five matches — W-L-L-D-D.
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · at home
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Motherwell: last five matches — L-L-D-L-L.
- 6 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
Table: Kilmarnock — 12, Motherwell — 9 (of 12).
Team statistics for three seasons
Kilmarnock at home and Motherwell away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Kilmarnock | Motherwell | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 40 | 42 |
| Win rate | 40% | 29% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 60% |
| Both teams score | 43% | 62% |
| Total corners per match | 9.4 | 10.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 40% | 62% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 36% |
Head to head
79 meetings in our database: Kilmarnock won 28, 19 draws, Motherwell won 32. Per match: 2.2 goals, 10.8 corners, 3.8 yellow cards.
- 24.01.2026: Motherwell 4:0 Kilmarnock
- 22.11.2025: Kilmarnock 1:3 Motherwell
- 30.08.2025: Motherwell 2:2 Kilmarnock
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?
Our model expects 10.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 54%.
How many yellow cards in Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 43%.
Who is more likely to win Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?
Market line without margin: Kilmarnock 30%, draw 26%, Motherwell 44%.