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Liverpool vs Manchester City: prediction and statistics
England · Premier League · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.5 corners in the match: Liverpool 5.5, Manchester City 4.9. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 60% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 60%, typical match 59%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards: Liverpool 1.7, Manchester City 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 30% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 50%, typical match 50%.
Result
Market line without margin: Liverpool win 32%, draw 26%, Manchester City win 42%. Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 63%.
Form
Liverpool: last five matches — D-D-W-D-W.
- 8 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
Manchester City: last five matches — W-L-W-W-W.
- 7 wins in a row · all competitions
- 7 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Liverpool — 6, Manchester City — 1 (of 21).
Team statistics for three seasons
Liverpool at home and Manchester City away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Liverpool | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 40 | 40 |
| Win rate | 60% | 48% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 65% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 10.8 | 10.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 65% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 35% |
Head to head
66 meetings in our database: Liverpool won 28, 22 draws, Manchester City won 16. Per match: 3.0 goals, 10.6 corners, 3.2 yellow cards.
- 04.04.2026: Manchester City 4:0 Liverpool
- 08.02.2026: Liverpool 1:2 Manchester City
- 09.11.2025: Manchester City 3:0 Liverpool
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
Our model expects 10.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 60%.
How many yellow cards in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 30%.
Who is more likely to win Liverpool vs Manchester City?
Market line without margin: Liverpool 32%, draw 26%, Manchester City 42%.