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Llaneros vs Santa Fe: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.3 corners in the match: Llaneros 5.4, Santa Fe 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 45% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 58%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: Llaneros 2.6, Santa Fe 2.4; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 56% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 74%, typical match 82%.
Result
Our model: Llaneros win 36%, draw 29%, Santa Fe win 35%. Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 45%.
Form
Llaneros: last five matches — W-L-L-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
Santa Fe: last five matches — L-W-D-W-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · away
Table: Llaneros — 14, Santa Fe — 3 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Llaneros at home and Santa Fe away, 2024–2026.
| Llaneros | Santa Fe | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 35 | 70 |
| Win rate | 34% | 41% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 36% |
| Both teams score | 43% | 54% |
| Total corners per match | 9.0 | 9.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 40% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.9 | 6.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 54% | 73% |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Llaneros won 2, 0 draws, Santa Fe won 1. Per match: 2.0 goals, 14.0 corners, 5.7 yellow cards.
- 01.04.2026: Santa Fe 0:1 Llaneros
- 12.10.2025: Santa Fe 1:3 Llaneros
- 01.05.2025: Llaneros 0:1 Santa Fe
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Llaneros vs Santa Fe?
Our model expects 9.3 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 45%.
How many yellow cards in Llaneros vs Santa Fe?
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 56%.
Who is more likely to win Llaneros vs Santa Fe?
Our model: Llaneros 36%, draw 29%, Santa Fe 35%.