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Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain: prediction and statistics
Europe · Champions League · 14 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: Manchester City 5.5, Paris Saint-Germain 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 50% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 50%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.1 yellow cards: Manchester City 1.5, Paris Saint-Germain 1.6; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 21% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 62%, typical match 38%.
Result
Market line without margin: Manchester City win 42%, draw 24%, Paris Saint-Germain win 35%. Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 66%.
Form
Manchester City: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 7 wins in a row · all competitions
- 7 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Paris Saint-Germain: last five matches — L-D-D-W-W.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Manchester City at home and Paris Saint-Germain away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Manchester City | Paris Saint-Germain | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 16 |
| Win rate | 50% | 63% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 63% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 8.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 47% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 1.5 | 3.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 20% |
Head to head
7 meetings in our database: Manchester City won 4, 1 draws, Paris Saint-Germain won 2. Per match: 3.0 goals, 11.0 corners, 4.0 yellow cards.
- 22.01.2025: Paris Saint-Germain 4:2 Manchester City
- 24.11.2021: Manchester City 2:1 Paris Saint-Germain
- 28.09.2021: Paris Saint-Germain 2:0 Manchester City
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Our model expects 9.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 50%.
How many yellow cards in Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Our model expects 3.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 21%.
Who is more likely to win Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Market line without margin: Manchester City 42%, draw 24%, Paris Saint-Germain 35%.