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Metal Kharkiv vs Chernihiv: prediction and statistics
Ukraine · Persha Liga · 27 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Metal Kharkiv 2.0, Chernihiv 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 58%, typical match 54%.
Form
Metal Kharkiv: last five matches — W-W-L-D-W.
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Chernihiv: last five matches — D-D-W-L-L.
Table: Metal Kharkiv — 9, Chernihiv — 14 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Metal Kharkiv at home and Chernihiv away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Metal Kharkiv | Chernihiv | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 30 | 20 |
| Win rate | 40% | 20% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 25% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 35% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 37% | 63% |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Metal Kharkiv won 2, 1 draws, Chernihiv won 1. Per match: 2.8 goals, 5.5 yellow cards.
- 26.05.2026: Chernihiv 1:2 Metal Kharkiv
- 07.04.2026: Metal Kharkiv 2:1 Chernihiv
- 25.05.2024: Metal Kharkiv 1:1 Chernihiv
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Metal Kharkiv vs Chernihiv?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 42%.