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Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Étoile Carouge: prediction and statistics
Switzerland · Challenge League · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Neuchatel Xamax FC · Étoile Carouge
Before kick-off
Challenge League, 20 November 2026: Neuchatel Xamax FC are at home to Étoile Carouge. They are neighbours in the table: Neuchatel Xamax FC are 5th and Étoile Carouge 7th of 10.
Neuchatel Xamax FC are in a difficult spell: 1 win and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches. Results have gone against Étoile Carouge recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. In points that is almost level: 3 against 4.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Neuchatel Xamax FC have 17 wins, 8 draws and 17 defeats in 42 matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. The away record of Étoile Carouge: 12 wins, 11 draws and 19 defeats in 42 matches, with 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 9 meetings — wins: Neuchatel Xamax FC 5, Étoile Carouge 4; draws: 0. The most recent meeting, on 7 August 2026, finished Étoile Carouge 0:1 Neuchatel Xamax FC. On average these meetings produce 2.9 goals.
Form
Neuchatel Xamax FC: last five matches — L-L-L-W-L.
- 13 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Étoile Carouge: last five matches — L-L-L-W-D.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Neuchatel Xamax FC — 5, Étoile Carouge — 7 (of 10).
Home and away record
Neuchatel Xamax FC at home and Étoile Carouge away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Neuchatel Xamax FC | Étoile Carouge | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 42 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 17-8-17 | 12-11-19 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Head to head
9 meetings in our database: Neuchatel Xamax FC won 5, 0 draws, Étoile Carouge won 4. Per match: 2.9 goals.
- 07.08.2026: Étoile Carouge 0:1 Neuchatel Xamax FC
- 11.05.2026: Neuchatel Xamax FC 3:0 Étoile Carouge
- 13.02.2026: Étoile Carouge 1:3 Neuchatel Xamax FC
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Neuchatel Xamax FC is the more likely winner in our model: 50%, draw 23%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 79% of Neuchatel Xamax FC’s home matches and 64% of Étoile Carouge’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Neuchatel Xamax FC 1.9, Étoile Carouge 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 38% (typical match — 53%).
Result
Our model: Neuchatel Xamax FC win 50%, draw 23%, Étoile Carouge win 27%. Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 63%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Neuchatel Xamax FC | Étoile Carouge | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 40% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79% | 64% |
| Both teams score | 74% | 55% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 48% | 43% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.7 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.