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Rapperswil vs FC Aarau: prediction and statistics
Switzerland · Challenge League · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Rapperswil · FC Aarau
Before kick-off
Challenge League, 20 November 2026: Rapperswil are at home to FC Aarau. Rapperswil go into the match 9th of 10 in the table, FC Aarau are 6th. Rapperswil are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
Rapperswil are in a difficult spell: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. Results have gone against FC Aarau recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. In points that is almost level: 4 against 4.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Rapperswil have 9 wins, 2 draws and 13 defeats in 24 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.9 conceded. FC Aarau travel well: 22 wins, 11 draws and 9 defeats in 42 away matches, with 2.1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.2 per game in home matches of Rapperswil and 3.6 in away matches of FC Aarau.
Head to head, FC Aarau have the upper hand: 10 wins in 15 meetings with Rapperswil in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 4 September 2026, finished FC Aarau 3:2 Rapperswil. On average these meetings produce 3.3 goals.
Form
Rapperswil: last five matches — D-W-L-L-L.
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 losses in a row · at home
FC Aarau: last five matches — D-L-L-L-W.
- 8 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 7 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Rapperswil — 9, FC Aarau — 6 (of 10).
Home and away record
Rapperswil at home and FC Aarau away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Rapperswil | FC Aarau | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 24 | 42 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 9-2-13 | 22-11-9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.9 | 1.6 |
Head to head
15 meetings in our database: Rapperswil won 4, 1 draws, FC Aarau won 10. Per match: 3.3 goals.
- 04.09.2026: FC Aarau 3:2 Rapperswil
- 04.04.2026: Rapperswil 4:5 FC Aarau
- 27.02.2026: FC Aarau 5:3 Rapperswil
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 37% – 22% – 41%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 63% of Rapperswil’s home matches and 79% of FC Aarau’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours FC Aarau: 10 wins in 15 meetings with Rapperswil.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: Rapperswil 2.4, FC Aarau 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 46% (typical match — 53%).
Result
Our model: Rapperswil win 37%, draw 22%, FC Aarau win 41%. Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 68%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Rapperswil | FC Aarau | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 38% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 79% |
| Both teams score | 54% | 86% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 5.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 42% | 60% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.