Xpect
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City: prediction and statistics
USA · MLS · 30 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.3 corners in the match: New York Red Bulls 5.8, St. Louis City 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 58% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 58%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: New York Red Bulls 2.1, St. Louis City 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 39% (typical match — 38%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 59%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: New York Red Bulls win 26%, draw 22%, St. Louis City win 52%. Over 2.5 goals — 67%, both teams to score — 66%.
Form
New York Red Bulls: last five matches — L-W-L-D-L.
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
St. Louis City: last five matches — W-D-W-D-W.
- 18 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
Table: New York Red Bulls — 19, St. Louis City — 7 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
New York Red Bulls at home and St. Louis City away, 2024–2026.
| New York Red Bulls | St. Louis City | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 47 | 47 |
| Win rate | 45% | 19% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 60% |
| Both teams score | 62% | 64% |
| Total corners per match | 8.7 | 10.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 38% | 57% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 38% | 38% |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: New York Red Bulls won 1, 1 draws, St. Louis City won 1. Per match: 3.0 goals.
- 24.01.2026: New York Red Bulls 3:1 St. Louis City
- 29.01.2025: New York Red Bulls 0:1 St. Louis City
- 10.02.2024: St. Louis City 2:2 New York Red Bulls
Referee
Rubiel Vazquez: 168 matches in our database, 3.7 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.2); over 4.5 cards in 34% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City?
Our model expects 10.3 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 58%.
How many yellow cards in New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City?
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 39%.
Who is more likely to win New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City?
Market line without margin: New York Red Bulls 26%, draw 22%, St. Louis City 52%.