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NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split: prediction and statistics
Croatia · HNL · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · HNK Hajduk Split
Before kick-off
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb host HNK Hajduk Split in HNL on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: HNK Hajduk Split are 1st of 10, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 9th — a gap of 8 places. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are in the bottom three.
Results have gone against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. An uneven run for HNK Hajduk Split: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games.
The home record of NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 15 wins, 11 draws and 16 defeats in 42 matches, 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded per game. On the road HNK Hajduk Split are a dangerous side — 16 wins, 15 draws and 11 defeats in 42 away matches, 1.3 scored and 1.1 conceded per game.
The 42 previous meetings are fairly balanced — NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 6, HNK Hajduk Split 24, draws 12. Last time out (31 August 2026) it ended HNK Hajduk Split 2:0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. On average these meetings produce 2.9 goals.
Form
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: last five matches — D-L-W-L-L.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
HNK Hajduk Split: last five matches — L-W-D-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — 9, HNK Hajduk Split — 1 (of 10).
Home and away record
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home and HNK Hajduk Split away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNK Hajduk Split | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 42 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 15-11-16 | 16-15-11 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
Head to head
42 meetings in our database: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb won 6, 12 draws, HNK Hajduk Split won 24. Per match: 2.9 goals.
- 31.08.2026: HNK Hajduk Split 2:0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 16.05.2026: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1:1 HNK Hajduk Split
- 15.03.2026: HNK Hajduk Split 2:1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model makes HNK Hajduk Split the favourite at 56%; a draw is 24%.
- HNK Hajduk Split should win the corner count: 5.2 expected against 3.9 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 43% of NK Lokomotiva Zagreb home games and 41% of HNK Hajduk Split away games.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.1 corners in the match: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3.9, HNK Hajduk Split 5.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 42% (typical match — 44%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 58%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2.0, HNK Hajduk Split 1.9; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 36% (typical match — 46%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 64%, typical match 54%.
Result
Our model: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win 20%, draw 24%, HNK Hajduk Split win 56%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 51%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNK Hajduk Split | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 36% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 41% |
| Both teams score | 55% | 45% |
| Total corners per match | 9.9 | 9.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 52% | 48% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 55% | 43% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.8 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.1 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.