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Northampton vs Tranmere: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 20 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Northampton · Tranmere
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Northampton 6.4, Tranmere 3.4. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 52%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Northampton 1.5, Tranmere 2.2; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 32% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 52%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: Northampton win 38%, draw 28%, Tranmere win 35%. Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 49%.
Form
Northampton: last five matches — D-L-D-W-L.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
Tranmere: last five matches — D-D-L-D-L.
- 6 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Northampton — 23, Tranmere — 13 (of 24).
Team statistics for three seasons
Northampton at home and Tranmere away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Northampton | Tranmere | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 51 |
| Win rate | 25% | 20% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 59% |
| Both teams score | 25% | 59% |
| Total corners per match | 8.3 | 9.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 47% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.3 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 25% | 43% |
Head to head
8 meetings in our database: Northampton won 5, 2 draws, Tranmere won 1. Per match: 2.1 goals, 11.5 corners, 3.3 yellow cards.
- 08.05.2023: Tranmere 0:1 Northampton
- 03.12.2022: Northampton 0:0 Tranmere
- 05.03.2022: Northampton 3:2 Tranmere
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Northampton vs Tranmere?
Our model expects 9.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 52%.
How many yellow cards in Northampton vs Tranmere?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 32%.
Who is more likely to win Northampton vs Tranmere?
Our model: Northampton 38%, draw 28%, Tranmere 35%.