Xpect
Politehnica UTM vs Zimbru: prediction and statistics
Moldova · Super Liga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Politehnica UTM · Zimbru
Before kick-off
Super Liga, 21 November 2026: Politehnica UTM are at home to Zimbru. Politehnica UTM go into the match 6th of 8 in the table, Zimbru are 2nd. Politehnica UTM are fighting at the wrong end of the table. Zimbru are in the top three.
An uneven run for Politehnica UTM: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Zimbru are unbeaten in the last 5 matches: 2 wins and 3 draws.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Politehnica UTM have 10 wins, 3 draws and 11 defeats in 24 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Zimbru travel well: 18 wins, 9 draws and 9 defeats in 36 away matches, with 1.9 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game.
Head to head, Zimbru have the upper hand: 7 wins in 7 meetings with Politehnica UTM in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 12 September 2026, finished Zimbru 2:1 Politehnica UTM. On average these meetings produce 4.7 goals.
Form
Politehnica UTM: last five matches — D-W-L-L-W.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Zimbru: last five matches — W-W-D-D-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · away
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches without a win · away
Table: Politehnica UTM — 6, Zimbru — 2 (of 8).
Home and away record
Politehnica UTM at home and Zimbru away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Politehnica UTM | Zimbru | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 24 | 36 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 10-3-11 | 18-9-9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
Head to head
7 meetings in our database: Politehnica UTM won 0, 0 draws, Zimbru won 7. Per match: 4.7 goals.
- 12.09.2026: Zimbru 2:1 Politehnica UTM
- 26.07.2026: Politehnica UTM 0:2 Zimbru
- 21.04.2026: Politehnica UTM 0:5 Zimbru
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Zimbru is the more likely winner in our model: 66%, draw 20%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 63% of Politehnica UTM’s home matches and 53% of Zimbru’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours Zimbru: 7 wins in 7 meetings with Politehnica UTM.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Politehnica UTM 2.1, Zimbru 1.9; typical match of the competition — 4.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 37% (typical match — 41%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 63%, typical match 59%.
Result
Our model: Politehnica UTM win 14%, draw 20%, Zimbru win 66%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 50%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Politehnica UTM | Zimbru | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 42% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 53% |
| Both teams score | 46% | 36% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.2 | 4.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 53% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.9 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.