Xpect
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Milsami Orhei: prediction and statistics
Moldova · Super Liga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Sheriff Tiraspol · Milsami Orhei
Before kick-off
Sheriff Tiraspol host Milsami Orhei in Super Liga on 21 November 2026. In the standings Sheriff Tiraspol are 1st and Milsami Orhei 5th out of 8 teams.
Sheriff Tiraspol arrive in excellent form: 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Milsami Orhei: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games.
Home advantage matters here: Sheriff Tiraspol have 27 wins, 8 draws and 3 defeats in 38 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.6 per game. Away from home Milsami Orhei have 13 wins, 10 draws and 13 defeats in 36 matches, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4 per game.
History favours Sheriff Tiraspol — 26 wins from 42 meetings with Milsami Orhei. Last time out (13 September 2026) it ended Milsami Orhei 0:1 Sheriff Tiraspol. On average these meetings produce 2.2 goals.
Form
Sheriff Tiraspol: last five matches — D-W-W-W-D.
- 9 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Milsami Orhei: last five matches — L-D-W-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
Table: Sheriff Tiraspol — 1, Milsami Orhei — 5 (of 8).
Home and away record
Sheriff Tiraspol at home and Milsami Orhei away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Sheriff Tiraspol | Milsami Orhei | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 36 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 27-8-3 | 13-10-13 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
Head to head
42 meetings in our database: Sheriff Tiraspol won 26, 11 draws, Milsami Orhei won 5. Per match: 2.2 goals.
- 13.09.2026: Milsami Orhei 0:1 Sheriff Tiraspol
- 26.07.2026: Sheriff Tiraspol 0:0 Milsami Orhei
- 17.05.2026: Milsami Orhei 0:0 Sheriff Tiraspol
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Sheriff Tiraspol has won 26 of the last 42 meetings with Milsami Orhei.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 47% of Sheriff Tiraspol home games and 64% of Milsami Orhei away games.
- Our model makes Sheriff Tiraspol the favourite at 64%; a draw is 21%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards: Sheriff Tiraspol 2.1, Milsami Orhei 2.6; typical match of the competition — 4.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 50% (typical match — 41%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 50%, typical match 41%.
Result
Our model: Sheriff Tiraspol win 64%, draw 21%, Milsami Orhei win 15%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 50%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Sheriff Tiraspol | Milsami Orhei | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 71% | 36% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 64% |
| Both teams score | 34% | 64% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 4.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 34% | 39% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.9 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.