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Portugalete vs Real Unión Irun: prediction and statistics
Spain · Copa del Rey · 18 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Portugalete · Real Unión Irun
Before kick-off
Copa del Rey, 18 November 2026: Portugalete are at home to Real Unión Irun.
An uneven run for Portugalete: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from the last 5 games. Real Unión Irun are still looking for a win: 2 draws and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Portugalete have 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in 6 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Trips have rarely paid off for Real Unión Irun — 1 win, 2 draws and 3 defeats in 6 away matches, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.8 on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 3 meetings — wins: Portugalete 1, Real Unión Irun 1; draws: 1. The most recent meeting, on 9 August 2025, finished Real Unión Irun 1:1 Portugalete. On average these meetings produce 2.3 goals.
Form
Portugalete: last five matches — D-W-L-D-D.
- 33 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · at home
Real Unión Irun: last five matches — L-L-D-D-L.
- 5 matches without a win · away
Home and away record
Portugalete at home and Real Unión Irun away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Portugalete | Real Unión Irun | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 2-2-2 | 1-2-3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.8 |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Portugalete won 1, 1 draws, Real Unión Irun won 1. Per match: 2.3 goals.
- 09.08.2025: Real Unión Irun 1:1 Portugalete
- 21.03.2021: Portugalete 2:0 Real Unión Irun
- 20.12.2020: Real Unión Irun 2:1 Portugalete
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 36% – 25% – 40%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 50% of Portugalete’s home matches and 50% of Real Unión Irun’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: Portugalete 2.4, Real Unión Irun 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 48% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 67%, typical match 67%.
Result
Our model: Portugalete win 36%, draw 25%, Real Unión Irun win 40%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 59%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Portugalete | Real Unión Irun | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 33% | 17% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 33% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 8.0 | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | 0% | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.0 | 4.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 50% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.