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Utebo vs CD Sabadell: prediction and statistics
Spain · Copa del Rey · 18 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Utebo · CD Sabadell
Before kick-off
Copa del Rey, 18 November 2026: Utebo are at home to CD Sabadell.
An uneven run for Utebo: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from the last 5 games. Results have gone against CD Sabadell recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games.
Utebo have not made their ground a fortress: 1 win, 2 draws and 3 defeats in 6 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. The away record of CD Sabadell: 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats in 6 matches, with 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on average.
There are no previous meetings between the two sides in the Xpect database.
Form
Utebo: last five matches — D-L-D-D-W.
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
CD Sabadell: last five matches — L-D-W-L-L.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Home and away record
Utebo at home and CD Sabadell away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Utebo | CD Sabadell | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 1-2-3 | 2-1-3 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- CD Sabadell is the more likely winner in our model: 57%, draw 25%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 33% of Utebo’s home matches and 50% of CD Sabadell’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards: Utebo 2.4, CD Sabadell 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 50% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 69%, typical match 67%.
Result
Our model: Utebo win 18%, draw 25%, CD Sabadell win 57%. Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 42%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Utebo | CD Sabadell | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 17% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 17% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | — | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | 80% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 1.4 | 4.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 33% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.