Xpect
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eredivisie · 9 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.7 corners in the match: PSV Eindhoven 6.5, Heerenveen 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 63% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 10.5 — 51%, typical match 45%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.2 yellow cards: PSV Eindhoven 1.5, Heerenveen 1.7; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 22% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 61%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: PSV Eindhoven win 76%, draw 14%, Heerenveen win 10%. Over 2.5 goals — 81%, both teams to score — 66%.
Form
PSV Eindhoven: last five matches — L-D-W-D-W.
- 8 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
Heerenveen: last five matches — L-W-D-D-W.
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 4 matches unbeaten · away
Table: PSV Eindhoven — 3, Heerenveen — 10 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
PSV Eindhoven at home and Heerenveen away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 37 | 37 |
| Win rate | 76% | 24% |
| Goals scored per match | 3.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 89% | 70% |
| Both teams score | 73% | 51% |
| Total corners per match | 11.7 | 9.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 78% | 41% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 8% | 8% |
Head to head
51 meetings in our database: PSV Eindhoven won 27, 15 draws, Heerenveen won 9. Per match: 3.6 goals, 11.8 corners, 1.7 yellow cards.
- 21.02.2026: PSV Eindhoven 3:1 Heerenveen
- 04.02.2026: PSV Eindhoven 4:1 Heerenveen
- 06.12.2025: Heerenveen 0:2 PSV Eindhoven
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
Our model expects 10.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 63%.
How many yellow cards in PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
Our model expects 3.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 22%.
Who is more likely to win PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
Market line without margin: PSV Eindhoven 76%, draw 14%, Heerenveen 10%.