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Puebla vs Leon: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga MX · 10 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Puebla 5.4, Leon 4.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 57% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 57%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Puebla 2.1, Leon 1.9; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 37% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 63%, typical match 53%.
Result
Market line without margin: Puebla win 31%, draw 27%, Leon win 42%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 55%.
Form
Puebla: last five matches — W-D-W-L-D.
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
Leon: last five matches — W-D-L-L-D.
- 4 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Puebla — 9, Leon — 5 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Puebla at home and Leon away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Puebla | Leon | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 40 |
| Win rate | 24% | 23% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 60% |
| Both teams score | 58% | 68% |
| Total corners per match | 10.5 | 9.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 61% | 53% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 40% | 45% |
Head to head
23 meetings in our database: Puebla won 8, 3 draws, Leon won 12. Per match: 2.7 goals, 10.1 corners, 5.0 yellow cards.
- 11.04.2026: Puebla 0:1 Leon
- 09.11.2025: Leon 1:2 Puebla
- 12.04.2025: Leon 1:0 Puebla
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Puebla vs Leon?
Our model expects 10.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 57%.
How many yellow cards in Puebla vs Leon?
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 37%.
Who is more likely to win Puebla vs Leon?
Market line without margin: Puebla 31%, draw 27%, Leon 42%.