Rochdale vs Grimsby: prediction and statistics

England · League Two · 20 October 2026 · kick-off 18:45 UTC

Corners

54%

Corners over 9.5

Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Rochdale 4.0, Grimsby 6.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 52%).

This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 54%, typical match 52%.

Yellow cards

73%

Yellow cards under 4.5

Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: Rochdale 1.8, Grimsby 1.7; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 27% (typical match — 32%).

This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 54%, typical match 49%.

Result

Our model: Rochdale win 27%, draw 23%, Grimsby win 50%. Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 59%.

Form

Rochdale: last five matches — W-L-W-D-W.

8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
3 matches unbeaten · at home

Grimsby: last five matches — D-D-L-L-L.

7 matches without a win · away
4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions

Table: Rochdale — 10, Grimsby — 11 (of 24).

Team statistics for three seasons

Rochdale at home and Grimsby away, 2024/25–2026/27.

	Rochdale	Grimsby
Matches	5	52
Win rate	60%	40%
Goals scored per match	1.6	1.4
Goals conceded per match	1.2	1.3
Over 2.5 goals	60%	54%
Both teams score	40%	56%
Total corners per match	9.2	10.0
Over 9.5 corners	40%	54%
Total yellow cards per match	3.2	4.2
Over 4.5 yellow cards	40%	40%

Head to head

4 meetings in our database: Rochdale won 2, 0 draws, Grimsby won 2. Per match: 1.5 goals, 10.5 corners, 6.0 yellow cards.

19.07.2025: Rochdale 2:0 Grimsby
11.03.2023: Grimsby 1:0 Rochdale
13.08.2022: Rochdale 0:1 Grimsby

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers

How many corners in Rochdale vs Grimsby?

Our model expects 10.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 54%.

How many yellow cards in Rochdale vs Grimsby?

Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 27%.

Who is more likely to win Rochdale vs Grimsby?

Our model: Rochdale 27%, draw 23%, Grimsby 50%.