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Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln: prediction and statistics
Germany · 3. Liga · 13 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Rot-Weiß Essen · Fortuna Köln
Result
Our model: Rot-Weiß Essen win 48%, draw 22%, Fortuna Köln win 29%. Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 65%.
Form
Rot-Weiß Essen: last five matches — W-W-W-W-D.
- 9 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
Fortuna Köln: last five matches — D-L-W-W-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 wins in a row · away
Table: Rot-Weiß Essen — 3, Fortuna Köln — 20 (of 21).
Team statistics for three seasons
Rot-Weiß Essen at home and Fortuna Köln away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Rot-Weiß Essen | Fortuna Köln | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 1 |
| Win rate | 57% | 100% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 3.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 100% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 100% |
| Total corners per match | 12.0 | 6.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 67% | 0% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.9 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 55% | 0% |
Head to head
6 meetings in our database: Rot-Weiß Essen won 3, 2 draws, Fortuna Köln won 1. Per match: 3.2 goals.
- 12.07.2025: Rot-Weiß Essen 5:0 Fortuna Köln
- 16.03.2022: Fortuna Köln 3:3 Rot-Weiß Essen
- 29.08.2021: Rot-Weiß Essen 2:1 Fortuna Köln
Referee
Niclas Rose: 11 matches in our database, 4.7 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.8); over 4.5 cards in 55% of matches.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln?
Our model: Rot-Weiß Essen 48%, draw 22%, Fortuna Köln 29%.