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Rotherham vs Newport County: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 20 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Rotherham · Newport County
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Rotherham 5.5, Newport County 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 51%, typical match 48%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Rotherham 2.0, Newport County 2.2; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 40% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 59%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: Rotherham win 30%, draw 26%, Newport County win 44%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 53%.
Form
Rotherham: last five matches — W-D-D-L-L.
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
Newport County: last five matches — L-L-D-W-D.
- 7 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
Table: Rotherham — 20, Newport County — 12 (of 24).
Team statistics for three seasons
Rotherham at home and Newport County away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Rotherham | Newport County | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 51 |
| Win rate | 20% | 18% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 57% |
| Both teams score | 100% | 47% |
| Total corners per match | 6.4 | 9.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 20% | 53% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 40% | 37% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Rotherham vs Newport County?
Our model expects 9.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 49%.
How many yellow cards in Rotherham vs Newport County?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 40%.
Who is more likely to win Rotherham vs Newport County?
Our model: Rotherham 30%, draw 26%, Newport County 44%.