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Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens: prediction and statistics
Europe · Champions League · 14 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.1 corners in the match: Shakhtar Donetsk 5.3, AEK Athens 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 43% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 57%, typical match 51%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.9, AEK Athens 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 57%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Shakhtar Donetsk win 35%, draw 27%, AEK Athens win 37%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Form
Shakhtar Donetsk: last five matches — W-L-W-W-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
- 4 wins in a row · all competitions
AEK Athens: last five matches — D-D-W-D-W.
- 12 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Shakhtar Donetsk at home and AEK Athens away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Shakhtar Donetsk | AEK Athens | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 1 |
| Win rate | 50% | 0% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 0% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 0% |
| Total corners per match | 8.8 | 3.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 25% | 0% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.3 | 0.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 0% |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Shakhtar Donetsk won 0, 0 draws, AEK Athens won 1. Per match: 5.0 goals.
- 13.07.2023: AEK Athens 5:0 Shakhtar Donetsk
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens?
Our model expects 9.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 43%.
How many yellow cards in Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens?
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 43%.
Who is more likely to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens?
Market line without margin: Shakhtar Donetsk 35%, draw 27%, AEK Athens 37%.