Xpect
Shirak vs Gandzasar: prediction and statistics
Armenia · Premier League · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Shirak · Gandzasar
Before kick-off
Premier League, 20 November 2026: Shirak are at home to Gandzasar. Shirak go into the match 7th of 12 in the table, Gandzasar are 12th. Gandzasar are in the bottom three.
An uneven run for Shirak: 2 wins and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. Gandzasar are still looking for a win: 5 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 6 for Shirak against 0 for Gandzasar.
Shirak have not made their ground a fortress: 7 wins, 7 draws and 19 defeats in 33 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Trips have rarely paid off for Gandzasar — 1 win, 5 draws and 27 defeats in 33 away matches, scoring 0.5 and conceding 2.1 on average.
This fixture often ends level: 20 of the 48 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 14 August 2026, finished Gandzasar 0:1 Shirak. On average these meetings produce 2.1 goals.
Form
Shirak: last five matches — L-W-L-L-W.
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Gandzasar: last five matches — L-L-L-L-L.
- 12 matches without a win · away
- 12 losses in a row · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Shirak — 7, Gandzasar — 12 (of 12).
Home and away record
Shirak at home and Gandzasar away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Shirak | Gandzasar | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 33 | 33 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 7-7-19 | 1-5-27 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 2.1 |
Head to head
48 meetings in our database: Shirak won 18, 20 draws, Gandzasar won 10. Per match: 2.1 goals.
- 14.08.2026: Gandzasar 0:1 Shirak
- 26.04.2026: Gandzasar 3:2 Shirak
- 22.11.2025: Shirak 1:0 Gandzasar
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 36% of Shirak’s home matches and 46% of Gandzasar’s away matches over three seasons.
- Draws are common in this fixture: 20 of 48 meetings.
- Shirak is the more likely winner in our model: 64%, draw 21%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Shirak 2.0, Gandzasar 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 41% (typical match — 44%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 60%, typical match 56%.
Result
Our model: Shirak win 64%, draw 21%, Gandzasar win 15%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 46%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Shirak | Gandzasar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 21% | 3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 46% |
| Both teams score | 30% | 36% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.7 | 3.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 46% | 24% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.1 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.