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Šiauliai vs Minija: prediction and statistics
Lithuania · A Lyga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Šiauliai host Minija in A Lyga on 21 November 2026.
Results have gone against Šiauliai recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. Recent results of Minija are mostly positive — 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 5 games.
Form
Šiauliai: last five matches — L-L-D-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Minija: last five matches — W-W-L-D-D.
- 12 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · away
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model sees an open game: Šiauliai 37%, draw 24%, Minija 39%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Šiauliai 2.2, Minija 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 40% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 60%, typical match 57%.
Result
Our model: Šiauliai win 37%, draw 24%, Minija win 39%. Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 62%.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.