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Stevenage vs Plymouth: prediction and statistics
England · League One · 20 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Stevenage · Plymouth
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Stevenage 4.6, Plymouth 5.3. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 60%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: Stevenage 1.9, Plymouth 2.5; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 45% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 64%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: Stevenage win 37%, draw 26%, Plymouth win 37%. Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 54%.
Form
Stevenage: last five matches — L-D-W-W-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 wins in a row · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Plymouth: last five matches — L-W-W-W-D.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 matches unbeaten · away
Table: Stevenage — 9, Plymouth — 1 (of 25).
Team statistics for three seasons
Stevenage at home and Plymouth away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Stevenage | Plymouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 51 | 28 |
| Win rate | 49% | 54% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 57% |
| Both teams score | 45% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 8.9 | 11.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 31% | 82% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 43% | 43% |
Head to head
11 meetings in our database: Stevenage won 2, 2 draws, Plymouth won 7. Per match: 2.7 goals, 10.3 corners, 1.6 yellow cards.
- 17.03.2026: Plymouth 1:0 Stevenage
- 01.01.2026: Stevenage 1:1 Plymouth
- 25.01.2020: Stevenage 1:2 Plymouth
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Stevenage vs Plymouth?
Our model expects 9.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 52%.
How many yellow cards in Stevenage vs Plymouth?
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 45%.
Who is more likely to win Stevenage vs Plymouth?
Our model: Stevenage 37%, draw 26%, Plymouth 37%.