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Sumqayıt vs Sabah FA: prediction and statistics
Azerbaijan · Premier League · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Sumqayıt · Sabah FA
Before kick-off
Sumqayıt host Sabah FA in Premier League on 20 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Sabah FA are 2nd of 12, Sumqayıt 9th — a gap of 7 places. Sabah FA are part of the leading group.
Sumqayıt have been solid lately: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Sabah FA: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 8 and 7.
The home record of Sumqayıt (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 14 wins, 7 draws and 19 defeats in 40 matches, 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded per game. On the road Sabah FA are a dangerous side — 20 wins, 12 draws and 7 defeats in 39 away matches, 1.9 scored and 1.1 conceded per game.
The 33 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Sumqayıt 9, Sabah FA 17, draws 7. Last time out (19 March 2026) it ended Sabah FA 3:1 Sumqayıt. On average these meetings produce 2.9 goals.
Form
Sumqayıt: last five matches — L-D-W-W-D.
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Sabah FA: last five matches — W-D-W-L-L.
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Sumqayıt — 9, Sabah FA — 2 (of 12).
Home and away record
Sumqayıt at home and Sabah FA away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Sumqayıt | Sabah FA | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 40 | 39 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 14-7-19 | 20-12-7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
Head to head
33 meetings in our database: Sumqayıt won 9, 7 draws, Sabah FA won 17. Per match: 2.9 goals.
- 19.03.2026: Sabah FA 3:1 Sumqayıt
- 22.12.2025: Sumqayıt 1:3 Sabah FA
- 28.09.2025: Sabah FA 1:1 Sumqayıt
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 53% of Sumqayıt home games and 56% of Sabah FA away games.
- Our model makes Sabah FA the favourite at 67%; a draw is 20%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Sumqayıt 2.0, Sabah FA 1.9; typical match of the competition — 4.4. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 37% (typical match — 45%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 64%, typical match 55%.
Result
Our model: Sumqayıt win 14%, draw 20%, Sabah FA win 67%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 49%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Sumqayıt | Sabah FA | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 35% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 56% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 59% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 50% | 33% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.