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Tapachula vs Zacatepec 1948: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga Premier · 6 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Tapachula · Zacatepec 1948
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 50% of Tapachula home games and 17% of Zacatepec 1948 away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Tapachula 41%, draw 25%, Zacatepec 1948 33%.
Result
Final score 2:4.
Result
Our model: Tapachula win 41%, draw 25%, Zacatepec 1948 win 33%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Form
Tapachula: last five matches — W-L-L-W-W.
- 12 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Zacatepec 1948: last five matches — L-D-W-L-D.
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
Table: Tapachula — 13, Zacatepec 1948 — 10 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Tapachula at home and Zacatepec 1948 away, 2026.
| Tapachula | Zacatepec 1948 | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Win rate | 50% | 17% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 17% |
| Both teams score | 33% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 0% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Tapachula vs Zacatepec 1948?
Our model: Tapachula 41%, draw 25%, Zacatepec 1948 33%.