Xpect
Tondela vs Torreense: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Liga 2 · 10 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.5 corners in the match: Tondela 5.6, Torreense 4.9. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 60% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 60%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards: Tondela 2.4, Torreense 2.4; typical match of the competition — 5.4. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 51% (typical match — 62%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 70%, typical match 79%.
Form
Tondela: last five matches — L-D-W-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Torreense: last five matches — L-L-D-W-W.
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
Table: Tondela — 8, Torreense — 14 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Tondela at home and Torreense away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Tondela | Torreense | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 20 | 37 |
| Win rate | 60% | 43% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 49% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 46% |
| Total corners per match | 7.5 | 11.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 25% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 6.1 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 64% | 50% |
Head to head
8 meetings in our database: Tondela won 4, 3 draws, Torreense won 1. Per match: 3.1 goals, 10.3 corners, 5.5 yellow cards.
- 01.03.2025: Tondela 2:2 Torreense
- 04.10.2024: Torreense 0:2 Tondela
- 15.03.2024: Torreense 0:1 Tondela
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Tondela vs Torreense?
Our model expects 10.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 60%.
How many yellow cards in Tondela vs Torreense?
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 51%.