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Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad: prediction and statistics
Europe · Europa League · 15 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: Union St.-Gilloise 5.7, Real Sociedad 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 51% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 51%, typical match 48%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards: Union St.-Gilloise 2.2, Real Sociedad 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 50% (typical match — 46%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 50%, typical match 46%.
Result
Market line without margin: Union St.-Gilloise win 41%, draw 27%, Real Sociedad win 32%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 58%.
Form
Union St.-Gilloise: last five matches — W-W-D-W-W.
- 30 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 wins in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Real Sociedad: last five matches — L-L-L-W-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
Team statistics for three seasons
Union St.-Gilloise at home and Real Sociedad away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Union St.-Gilloise | Real Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | — | 6 |
| Win rate | — | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | — | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | — | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 83% |
| Both teams score | — | 100% |
| Total corners per match | — | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | 33% |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | 6.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | 100% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
Our model expects 9.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 51%.
How many yellow cards in Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 50%.
Who is more likely to win Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
Market line without margin: Union St.-Gilloise 41%, draw 27%, Real Sociedad 32%.