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York vs Gillingham: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: York 5.8, Gillingham 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 54%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: York 1.7, Gillingham 2.2; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 36% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 55%, typical match 51%.
Result
Market line without margin: York win 61%, draw 22%, Gillingham win 17%. Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 56%.
Form
York: last five matches — W-W-W-L-D.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Gillingham: last five matches — L-L-D-D-W.
- 14 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
Table: York — 7, Gillingham — 4 (of 24).
Team statistics for three seasons
York at home and Gillingham away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| York | Gillingham | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 49 |
| Win rate | 100% | 20% |
| Goals scored per match | 3.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 33% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 49% |
| Total corners per match | 10.7 | 8.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 67% | 39% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.0 | 4.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 37% |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: York won 0, 2 draws, Gillingham won 0. Per match: 1.0 goals.
- 12.02.2013: York 0:0 Gillingham
- 26.01.2013: Gillingham 1:1 York
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in York vs Gillingham?
Our model expects 9.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 54%.
How many yellow cards in York vs Gillingham?
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 36%.
Who is more likely to win York vs Gillingham?
Market line without margin: York 61%, draw 22%, Gillingham 17%.