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Aarhus Fremad vs Hobro: prediction and statistics
Denmark · 1. Division · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Aarhus Fremad · Hobro
Before kick-off
1. Division, 20 November 2026: Aarhus Fremad are at home to Hobro. They are neighbours in the table: Aarhus Fremad are 5th and Hobro 7th of 12.
An uneven run for Aarhus Fremad: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Results have gone against Hobro recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Aarhus Fremad have 10 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats in 23 matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The away record of Hobro: 13 wins, 10 draws and 15 defeats in 38 matches, with 1.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 10 meetings — wins: Aarhus Fremad 3, Hobro 5; draws: 2. The most recent meeting, on 26 July 2026, finished Hobro 1:2 Aarhus Fremad. On average these meetings produce 2.0 goals.
Form
Aarhus Fremad: last five matches — W-L-D-L-W.
- 6 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Hobro: last five matches — W-L-L-L-D.
- 9 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Aarhus Fremad — 5, Hobro — 7 (of 12).
Home and away record
Aarhus Fremad at home and Hobro away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Aarhus Fremad | Hobro | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 23 | 38 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 10-7-6 | 13-10-15 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.5 |
Head to head
10 meetings in our database: Aarhus Fremad won 3, 2 draws, Hobro won 5. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 26.07.2026: Hobro 1:2 Aarhus Fremad
- 14.05.2026: Hobro 0:3 Aarhus Fremad
- 26.04.2026: Aarhus Fremad 0:1 Hobro
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 61% of Aarhus Fremad’s home matches and 42% of Hobro’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: Aarhus Fremad 1.5, Hobro 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.6. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 27% (typical match — 29%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 54%, typical match 52%.
Result
Our model: Aarhus Fremad win 48%, draw 26%, Hobro win 26%. Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 50%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Aarhus Fremad | Hobro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 43% | 34% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 42% |
| Both teams score | 52% | 47% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.6 | 2.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 30% | 16% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.