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Aberdeen vs St Mirren: prediction and statistics
Scotland · Premiership · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.8 corners in the match: Aberdeen 5.8, St Mirren 4.9. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 64% (typical match — 60%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 10.5 — 51%, typical match 47%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Aberdeen 1.7, St Mirren 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 32% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 52%, typical match 50%.
Result
Market line without margin: Aberdeen win 51%, draw 25%, St Mirren win 24%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 55%.
Form
Aberdeen: last five matches — W-W-W-L-D.
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
St Mirren: last five matches — W-W-L-W-L.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
Table: Aberdeen — 7, St Mirren — 5 (of 12).
Team statistics for three seasons
Aberdeen at home and St Mirren away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Aberdeen | St Mirren | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 37 |
| Win rate | 39% | 27% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 46% |
| Both teams score | 53% | 49% |
| Total corners per match | 10.9 | 10.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 68% | 62% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 55% | 19% |
Head to head
62 meetings in our database: Aberdeen won 26, 18 draws, St Mirren won 18. Per match: 2.4 goals, 9.9 corners, 3.1 yellow cards.
- 12.05.2026: Aberdeen 0:2 St Mirren
- 04.04.2026: St Mirren 2:0 Aberdeen
- 03.12.2025: Aberdeen 3:3 St Mirren
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Aberdeen vs St Mirren?
Our model expects 10.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 64%.
How many yellow cards in Aberdeen vs St Mirren?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 32%.
Who is more likely to win Aberdeen vs St Mirren?
Market line without margin: Aberdeen 51%, draw 25%, St Mirren 24%.