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AF Elbasani vs Dinamo Tirana: prediction and statistics
Albania · Superliga · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: AF Elbasani · Dinamo Tirana
Before kick-off
Superliga, 20 November 2026: AF Elbasani are at home to Dinamo Tirana. AF Elbasani go into the match 6th of 10 in the table, Dinamo Tirana are 3rd. Dinamo Tirana are in the top three.
Few sides are in better shape than AF Elbasani right now — 3 wins and 2 draws from the last 5 games. Dinamo Tirana have been solid lately: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) AF Elbasani have 21 wins, 15 draws and 7 defeats in 43 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. The away record of Dinamo Tirana: 11 wins, 17 draws and 17 defeats in 45 matches, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded on average. Both samples are low on goals: 2.3 per game in home matches of AF Elbasani and 2.3 in away matches of Dinamo Tirana.
Head to head there is no clear master over 10 meetings — wins: AF Elbasani 3, Dinamo Tirana 5; draws: 2. The most recent meeting, on 6 September 2026, finished Dinamo Tirana 2:1 AF Elbasani. On average these meetings produce 3.0 goals.
Form
AF Elbasani: last five matches — D-W-D-W-W.
- 8 matches unbeaten · at home
- 7 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Dinamo Tirana: last five matches — W-W-L-D-D.
- 3 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: AF Elbasani — 6, Dinamo Tirana — 3 (of 10).
Home and away record
AF Elbasani at home and Dinamo Tirana away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| AF Elbasani | Dinamo Tirana | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 45 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 21-15-7 | 11-17-17 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.2 |
Head to head
10 meetings in our database: AF Elbasani won 3, 2 draws, Dinamo Tirana won 5. Per match: 3.0 goals.
- 06.09.2026: Dinamo Tirana 2:1 AF Elbasani
- 24.05.2026: AF Elbasani 3:0 Dinamo Tirana
- 04.04.2026: Dinamo Tirana 4:1 AF Elbasani
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 38% – 26% – 37%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 47% of AF Elbasani’s home matches and 40% of Dinamo Tirana’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards: AF Elbasani 2.5, Dinamo Tirana 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.6. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 54% (typical match — 49%).
Result
Our model: AF Elbasani win 38%, draw 26%, Dinamo Tirana win 37%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| AF Elbasani | Dinamo Tirana | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 49% | 24% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 58% | 47% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.9 | 4.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 51% | 53% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.2 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.