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Aris vs Nea Salamis: prediction and statistics
Cyprus · 1. Division · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Aris · Nea Salamis
Before kick-off
1. Division, 21 November 2026: Aris are at home to Nea Salamis. Aris go into the match 7th of 14 in the table, Nea Salamis are 10th.
Recent results of Aris are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Results have gone against Nea Salamis recently — 1 win and 4 defeats from the last 5 games. On points from those games the gap is clear: 10 for Aris against 3 for Nea Salamis.
Aris are hard to beat on their own ground — 24 wins, 11 draws and 6 defeats in 41 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 2.0 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Trips have rarely paid off for Nea Salamis — 3 wins, 6 draws and 13 defeats in 22 away matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.9 on average.
Head to head, Aris have the upper hand: 5 wins in 6 meetings with Nea Salamis in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 1 February 2025, finished Nea Salamis 2:2 Aris. On average these meetings produce 3.3 goals.
Form
Aris: last five matches — W-L-W-D-W.
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Nea Salamis: last five matches — L-W-L-L-L.
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 losses in a row · away
- 3 matches without a win · away
Table: Aris — 7, Nea Salamis — 10 (of 14).
Home and away record
Aris at home and Nea Salamis away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Aris | Nea Salamis | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 22 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 24-11-6 | 3-6-13 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.9 |
Head to head
6 meetings in our database: Aris won 5, 1 draws, Nea Salamis won 0. Per match: 3.3 goals.
- 01.02.2025: Nea Salamis 2:2 Aris
- 26.10.2024: Aris 2:1 Nea Salamis
- 06.02.2024: Nea Salamis 0:3 Aris
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Aris is the more likely winner in our model: 59%, draw 21%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 59% of Aris’s home matches and 59% of Nea Salamis’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours Aris: 5 wins in 6 meetings with Nea Salamis.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards: Aris 2.3, Nea Salamis 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 50% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 69%, typical match 70%.
Result
Our model: Aris win 59%, draw 21%, Nea Salamis win 21%. Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 60%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Aris | Nea Salamis | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 59% | 14% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% |
| Both teams score | 49% | 59% |
| Total corners per match | 11.2 | 8.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 67% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.7 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 51% | 46% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.4 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.7 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.