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Omonia Nicosia vs Apoel Nicosia: prediction and statistics
Cyprus · 1. Division · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Omonia Nicosia · Apoel Nicosia
Before kick-off
Omonia Nicosia host Apoel Nicosia in 1. Division on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Omonia Nicosia are 2nd, Apoel Nicosia 4th in a table of 14. Omonia Nicosia are in the top three.
Omonia Nicosia have been solid lately: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Apoel Nicosia: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Counted in points, Omonia Nicosia took 10 from that stretch and Apoel Nicosia only 5.
Home advantage matters here: Omonia Nicosia have 28 wins, 11 draws and 2 defeats in 41 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 2.1 and conceding 0.6 per game. Away from home Apoel Nicosia have 13 wins, 12 draws and 16 defeats in 41 matches, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.3 per game.
The 29 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Omonia Nicosia 9, Apoel Nicosia 11, draws 9. Last time out (16 May 2026) it ended Apoel Nicosia 0:3 Omonia Nicosia. On average these meetings produce 2.4 goals.
Form
Omonia Nicosia: last five matches — W-W-D-L-W.
Apoel Nicosia: last five matches — L-L-D-D-W.
- 7 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 wins in a row · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Omonia Nicosia — 2, Apoel Nicosia — 4 (of 14).
Home and away record
Omonia Nicosia at home and Apoel Nicosia away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Omonia Nicosia | Apoel Nicosia | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 41 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 28-11-2 | 13-12-16 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.6 | 1.3 |
Head to head
29 meetings in our database: Omonia Nicosia won 9, 9 draws, Apoel Nicosia won 11. Per match: 2.4 goals.
- 16.05.2026: Apoel Nicosia 0:3 Omonia Nicosia
- 18.04.2026: Omonia Nicosia 2:0 Apoel Nicosia
- 22.02.2026: Apoel Nicosia 1:0 Omonia Nicosia
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 56% of Omonia Nicosia home games and 59% of Apoel Nicosia away games.
- Our model makes Omonia Nicosia the favourite at 62%; a draw is 21%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Omonia Nicosia 2.2, Apoel Nicosia 2.7; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 53% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 53%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: Omonia Nicosia win 62%, draw 21%, Apoel Nicosia win 18%. Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 55%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Omonia Nicosia | Apoel Nicosia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 68% | 32% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 59% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 49% |
| Total corners per match | 8.9 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 29% | 53% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 46% | 59% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.6 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.