Xpect
Avai vs Athletic Club: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie B · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Avai 5.5, Athletic Club 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 53% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 59%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: Avai 2.1, Athletic Club 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 46% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 54%, typical match 46%.
Result
Our model: Avai win 45%, draw 27%, Athletic Club win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 47%.
Form
Avai: last five matches — W-L-D-L-W.
- 4 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Athletic Club: last five matches — L-L-W-D-L.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Avai — 17, Athletic Club — 13 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Avai at home and Athletic Club away, 2024–2026.
| Avai | Athletic Club | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 54 | 35 |
| Win rate | 46% | 29% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 49% |
| Both teams score | 43% | 57% |
| Total corners per match | 10.7 | 9.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 59% | 54% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.6 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 48% | 57% |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Avai won 1, 0 draws, Athletic Club won 2. Per match: 2.7 goals, 11.3 corners, 5.0 yellow cards.
- 28.06.2026: Athletic Club 1:0 Avai
- 01.11.2025: Avai 2:1 Athletic Club
- 14.07.2025: Athletic Club 4:0 Avai
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Avai vs Athletic Club?
Our model expects 9.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 53%.
How many yellow cards in Avai vs Athletic Club?
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 46%.
Who is more likely to win Avai vs Athletic Club?
Our model: Avai 45%, draw 27%, Athletic Club 28%.