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Barnet vs Swindon Town: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 20 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Barnet · Swindon Town
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.5 corners in the match: Barnet 7.2, Swindon Town 3.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 61% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 61%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: Barnet 1.4, Swindon Town 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 28% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 53%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: Barnet win 71%, draw 17%, Swindon Town win 12%. Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 53%.
Form
Barnet: last five matches — W-W-D-W-W.
- 10 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
Swindon Town: last five matches — D-L-L-L-L.
- 13 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 7 matches without a win · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
Table: Barnet — 2, Swindon Town — 17 (of 24).
Team statistics for three seasons
Barnet at home and Swindon Town away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Barnet | Swindon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 27 | 51 |
| Win rate | 48% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 55% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 51% |
| Total corners per match | 10.3 | 10.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 59% | 63% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 30% | 16% |
Head to head
8 meetings in our database: Barnet won 2, 1 draws, Swindon Town won 5. Per match: 2.7 goals, 9.0 corners, 3.0 yellow cards.
- 17.02.2026: Barnet 1:2 Swindon Town
- 19.08.2025: Swindon Town 0:2 Barnet
- 01.01.2018: Barnet 1:2 Swindon Town
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Barnet vs Swindon Town?
Our model expects 10.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 61%.
How many yellow cards in Barnet vs Swindon Town?
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 28%.
Who is more likely to win Barnet vs Swindon Town?
Our model: Barnet 71%, draw 17%, Swindon Town 12%.