Xpect
CA La Paz vs Piratas: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga de Expansión · 15 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: CA La Paz · Piratas
Before kick-off
Liga de Expansión, 15 November 2026: CA La Paz are at home to Piratas. CA La Paz go into the match 1st of 16 in the table, Piratas are 4th.
Recent results of CA La Paz are mostly positive — 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 5 games. Piratas have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) CA La Paz have 14 wins, 14 draws and 10 defeats in 38 matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The away record of Piratas: 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats in 9 matches, with 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on average.
The sides have rarely met: the Xpect database holds 2 meetings between them. The most recent meeting, on 12 November 2026, finished Piratas 1:1 CA La Paz.
Form
CA La Paz: last five matches — W-L-D-W-D.
- 7 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 5 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Piratas: last five matches — D-L-L-W-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: CA La Paz — 1, Piratas — 4 (of 16).
Home and away record
CA La Paz at home and Piratas away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| CA La Paz | Piratas | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 9 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 14-14-10 | 2-4-3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: CA La Paz won 1, 1 draws, Piratas won 0. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 12.11.2026: Piratas 1:1 CA La Paz
- 15.08.2026: CA La Paz 2:0 Piratas
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- CA La Paz is the more likely winner in our model: 53%, draw 24%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 63% of CA La Paz’s home matches and 44% of Piratas’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.2 yellow cards: CA La Paz 2.6, Piratas 2.7; typical match of the competition — 5.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 60% (typical match — 61%).
Result
Our model: CA La Paz win 53%, draw 24%, Piratas win 24%. Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 55%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| CA La Paz | Piratas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 37% | 22% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 44% |
| Both teams score | 66% | 44% |
| Total corners per match | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 100% | 100% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.8 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 74% | 44% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 12.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.