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Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga de Expansión · 15 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Leones Negros UDG · Monarcas
Before kick-off
Liga de Expansión, 15 November 2026: Leones Negros UDG are at home to Monarcas. They are neighbours in the table: Leones Negros UDG are 2nd and Monarcas 3rd of 16. Both sides are in the top three.
Recent results of Leones Negros UDG are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Monarcas have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
Leones Negros UDG are hard to beat on their own ground — 24 wins, 11 draws and 8 defeats in 43 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 2.0 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game. The away record of Monarcas: 11 wins, 10 draws and 21 defeats in 42 matches, with 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 17 meetings — wins: Leones Negros UDG 10, Monarcas 5; draws: 2. The most recent meeting, on 20 September 2026, finished Monarcas 2:0 Leones Negros UDG. On average these meetings produce 2.0 goals.
Form
Leones Negros UDG: last five matches — D-W-L-W-W.
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Monarcas: last five matches — L-D-W-L-W.
- 10 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 8 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Leones Negros UDG — 2, Monarcas — 3 (of 16).
Home and away record
Leones Negros UDG at home and Monarcas away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Leones Negros UDG | Monarcas | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 42 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 24-11-8 | 11-10-21 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
Head to head
17 meetings in our database: Leones Negros UDG won 10, 2 draws, Monarcas won 5. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 20.09.2026: Monarcas 2:0 Leones Negros UDG
- 05.04.2026: Leones Negros UDG 2:0 Monarcas
- 26.10.2025: Monarcas 2:3 Leones Negros UDG
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Leones Negros UDG is the more likely winner in our model: 50%, draw 24%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 61% of Leones Negros UDG’s home matches and 52% of Monarcas’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.5 yellow cards: Leones Negros UDG 2.9, Monarcas 2.6; typical match of the competition — 5.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 64% (typical match — 61%).
Result
Our model: Leones Negros UDG win 50%, draw 24%, Monarcas win 26%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 56%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Leones Negros UDG | Monarcas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 56% | 26% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 52% |
| Both teams score | 65% | 60% |
| Total corners per match | 14.0 | 12.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 100% | 100% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.2 | 5.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 63% | 74% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 6.2 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.