Xpect
Celtic vs Heart of Midlothian: prediction and statistics
Scotland · Premiership · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.1 corners in the match: Celtic 5.5, Heart of Midlothian 4.7. In a typical match of this competition — 10.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 60%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 56%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: Celtic 1.6, Heart of Midlothian 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 30% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 51%, typical match 50%.
Result
Our model: Celtic win 66%, draw 18%, Heart of Midlothian win 16%. Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 61%.
Form
Celtic: last five matches — W-W-W-L-L.
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Heart of Midlothian: last five matches — L-L-L-L-W.
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Celtic vs Heart of Midlothian?
Our model expects 10.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 56%.
How many yellow cards in Celtic vs Heart of Midlothian?
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 30%.
Who is more likely to win Celtic vs Heart of Midlothian?
Our model: Celtic 66%, draw 18%, Heart of Midlothian 16%.