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Chitipa United vs Moyale Barracks: prediction and statistics
Malawi · Super League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Chitipa United · Moyale Barracks
Before kick-off
Chitipa United host Moyale Barracks in Super League on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Chitipa United are 8th, Moyale Barracks 7th in a table of 16.
Chitipa United arrive in excellent form: 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Moyale Barracks: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games.
The home record of Chitipa United (2024–2026) is balanced: 20 wins, 13 draws and 7 defeats in 40 matches, 1.3 scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Moyale Barracks find it hard on the road: 8 wins, 11 draws and 21 defeats in 40 away matches, 0.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Both samples are low on goals: 2.2 per game in home matches of Chitipa United and 2.2 in away matches of Moyale Barracks.
The 10 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Chitipa United 5, Moyale Barracks 2, draws 3. Last time out (9 May 2026) it ended Moyale Barracks 3:2 Chitipa United. On average these meetings produce 2.5 goals.
Form
Chitipa United: last five matches — W-W-D-W-D.
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
- 6 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 6 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Moyale Barracks: last five matches — W-L-W-L-D.
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Chitipa United — 8, Moyale Barracks — 7 (of 16).
Home and away record
Chitipa United at home and Moyale Barracks away, 2024–2026.
| Chitipa United | Moyale Barracks | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 40 | 40 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 20-13-7 | 8-11-21 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.5 |
Head to head
10 meetings in our database: Chitipa United won 5, 3 draws, Moyale Barracks won 2. Per match: 2.5 goals.
- 09.05.2026: Moyale Barracks 3:2 Chitipa United
- 28.09.2025: Chitipa United 2:0 Moyale Barracks
- 15.06.2025: Moyale Barracks 0:0 Chitipa United
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 43% of Chitipa United home games and 38% of Moyale Barracks away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Chitipa United 41%, draw 29%, Moyale Barracks 30%.
Result
Our model: Chitipa United win 41%, draw 29%, Moyale Barracks win 30%. Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 43%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Chitipa United | Moyale Barracks | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 50% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 38% |
| Both teams score | 40% | 43% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 0% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.