Xpect
Creck vs MAFCO: prediction and statistics
Malawi · Super League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Super League, 21 November 2026: Creck are at home to MAFCO. They are neighbours in the table: Creck are 15th and MAFCO 16th of 16. Both sides are in the bottom three.
Recent results of Creck are mostly positive — 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games. MAFCO are still looking for a win: 5 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 9 for Creck against 0 for MAFCO.
At home (2024–2026) Creck have 18 wins, 9 draws and 12 defeats in 39 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. Trips have rarely paid off for MAFCO — 5 wins, 12 draws and 22 defeats in 39 away matches, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.5 on average. Both samples are low on goals: 2.3 per game in home matches of Creck and 2.1 in away matches of MAFCO.
Head to head, Creck have the upper hand: 4 wins in 5 meetings with MAFCO in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 9 May 2026, finished MAFCO 0:0 Creck. On average these meetings produce 2.0 goals.
Form
Creck: last five matches — L-L-W-W-W.
- 3 wins in a row · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
MAFCO: last five matches — L-L-L-L-L.
- 18 matches without a win · away
- 7 losses in a row · away
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: Creck — 15, MAFCO — 16 (of 16).
Home and away record
Creck at home and MAFCO away, 2024–2026.
| Creck | MAFCO | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 39 | 39 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 18-9-12 | 5-12-22 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.5 |
Head to head
5 meetings in our database: Creck won 4, 1 draws, MAFCO won 0. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 09.05.2026: MAFCO 0:0 Creck
- 27.12.2025: Creck 1:0 MAFCO
- 31.05.2025: MAFCO 1:2 Creck
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Creck is the more likely winner in our model: 54%, draw 28%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 36% of Creck’s home matches and 41% of MAFCO’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours Creck: 4 wins in 5 meetings with MAFCO.
Result
Our model: Creck win 54%, draw 28%, MAFCO win 18%. Over 2.5 goals — 34%, both teams to score — 37%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Creck | MAFCO | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 46% | 13% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 41% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 44% |
| Total corners per match | — | 11.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | 100% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 0% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.